CV19 Pandemic Update for 2020-03-28 (Saturday Night).
I’m thinking that the increase in testing that we have done may simply be what’s required to keep up with our infection spread rate, and maybe does not actually dilute our results. The US mortality rate actually just started to go up again.
The numbers are close to estimates, but non-PRC is 6k low, Texas is 2% high, and Maine is 1.5% high. Either the rest of the world is slowing down, with the future estimates coming back in line, or this was an anomaly which will self-correct soon, with an over-sized day.
2020-03-28 Saturday 1-Day Projection: WW 666020/30928; PRC 82012/3301; NON 584008/27627; IT 92840/10156; US 123266/2067; TX 2400/32; ME 182/1 1-Day Distancing: WW 666020/30928; PRC 82012/3301; NON 584008/27627; IT 92840/10156; US 123859/2000; TX 2390/33; ME 182/1 Actual Numbers: WW 660706/30652; PRC 81999/3299; NON 578707/27353; IT 92472/10023; US 121478/2026; TX 2455/30; ME 211/1
I only include the numbers for PRC because it fits my chart. I am fairy cetrain those numbers are bogus after seeing that their funeral homes appear to be cremating 4-8 times the normal number of bodies. That matches the supposition that we only get 14% of their numbers.
ERR US Testing: POS 107,568 NEG 561,770 PEND 59,784 HOSPITAL 23,397 DEAD 2,585 1-Day US Testing: POS 107,345 NEG 569,288 PEND 64,889 HOSPITAL 19,587 DEAD 2,013 Actual Testing: POS 118,234 NEG 617,470 PEND 65,712 HOSPITAL 16,729 DEAD 1,965
I had a formula error and pasted the wrong line for the estimate. Not too far off from the updated estimate, but the real numbers are much further off than I expected.
2020-03-29 Sunday Estimate 1-Day Projection: WW 736981/34604; PRC 82101/3302; NON 654880/31302; IT 98859/10999; US 145164/2596; TX 3112/35; ME 265/1 1-Day Distancing: WW 736981/34604; PRC 82101/3302; NON 654880/31302; IT 98859/10999; US 144607/2494; TX 2934/37; ME 265/1 1-Day US Testing: POS 126,269 NEG 659,435 PEND 70,178 HOSP 23,397 DEAD 2,585
2020-04-01 7-day Projection April 1 7-Day Projection: WW 1,169,645/61,852; PRC 82,134/3,338; NON 1,087,512/58,514; IT 157,313/19,560; US 477,863/6,398; TX 9,131/162 UPDATE WW 1,097,956/54,118; PRC 82,357/3,321; NON 1,015,599/50,796; IT 132,717/16,052; US 333,315/5,929; TX 7,263/90; ME 468/5
The worldwide numbers are lower by 70k. The US 477k is from a one-day 175% several days ago, and it has not rolled out of the average. If I dilute that, the estimate is 300k Note that the US is not tracked as part of the world here.
7-Day Distancing: WW 1,169,645/61,852; PRC 82,134/3,338; NON 1,087,512/58,514; IT 157,313/19,560; US 232,880/4,603; TX 5,875/72 UPDATE WW 1,097,956/54,118; PRC 82,357/3,321; NON 1,015,599/50,796; IT 132,717/16,052; US 237,600/4,513; TX 5,003/68
The distancing algo still tracks close, with 1.5% difference.
7-Day US Testing: POS 134,035 NEG 728,160 PEND 100,028 HOSP 68,262 DEAD 4,770 Overrun: 04-06 335k UPDATE POS 150,376 NEG 785,328 PEND 83,576 HOSP 64,012 DEAD 5,886 Overrun: 04-06 342k
The US testing chart looks like hospital overrun may still be April 6 (32% of US hospital beds).
Texas projections are the same except the 1.2m point moves out 1 day.
04-07 29k TEXAS ICU OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-06 36k TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-13 146k TEXAS ICU STG3
04-14 178k TEXAS VENT STG3 & Hosp STG1
04-17 400k may be the inflection point for Texas if 14% like China, but our death rate is lower than theirs or the world.
04-18 532k TEXAS HOSP STG3
04-22 1.2m Inflection point for R0 of 2.2 is 60% with detection rate of 39.08
The distancing formula update shows TX ICU one day earlier, and hospital stage 3 one day later.
04-10 2929 TEXAS ICU OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-12 1787 TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-20 2929 TEXAS ICU OVERRUN STAGE 3
04-21 1787 TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 2
04-21 26633 TEXAS HOSPITAL OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-25 400k may be the inflection point for Texas if 14% like China, but our death rate is lower than theirs or the world.
04-27 4550 TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 3
04-28 26633 TEXAS HOSPITAL OVERRUN STAGE 2
05-02 47441 TEXAS HOSPITAL OVERRUN STAGE 3
05-02 1.2m Inflection point for R0 of 2.2 is 60% with detection rate of 39.08
Here are the milestones from 04-23 data for comparison to track our progress flattening the curve:
04-06 33k TEXAS ICU OVERRUN STG 1
04-07 45k TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STG 1
04-10 150k TEXAS VENT/ICU STG 2 & Hosp STG 1
04-13 366k TEXAS VENT/ICU STG 3 & Hosp STG 2
04-15 660k TEXAS Hosp STG 3
Milestones are based on guesstimates: TX 28.7m pop; 2.9 beds per 1000 in TX (83230); 32% unoccupied (26633) / 11% are ICU (2929); 6.7% ventilators (1787); 10% limited function ventilation (2663) / 5-15% conf need hosp(532k-177k @ overrun); 2-10% ICU (29k-146k); 1-5% need vent (36k-178k)
Testing has ramped up substantially, every 2 days another 20k per day. We are at 110k per day as of 2020-03-28 16:00 EDT. We are expecting another 50k/day from Abbott Labs. That probably is just going to help keep up with demand, and not dilute deaths by confirmations. US mortality rates are up again, at 1.67%,
Our mortality rate is still about a third of the rest of the world, with TX going down to 122%, and the US going up again today to 167% (155% yesterday, 144% prior).
Inflection point for outbreaks with an R0 of 2.2 is 60% of the population, not 60% of the confirmed cases. If we are catching a third of the cases, then uncontrolled, exponential climb would stop when confirmed cases were 20% of the population. If we are catching a 6th, then 10%.
Social distancing data lags by 3 days. Statistics lag by 1 day. Detection lags by 9-12 days. Impact delay of SD on Confirmations MAY BE 9 days, or it may be longer. The correlation is hard to suss out, but it may be that it will become more evident as we get more days of data.
Spreadsheet is updated, and downloadable here: