CV19 Pandemic Update for 2020-03-27 (Friday)’s final numbers. I waited long enough, it is almost time for another update. But, I got some sleep. That helped me feel better. Also, it’s Erica’s birthday!
1-Day Projection: WW 601509/27192; PRC 81903/3297; NON 519605/23895; IT 87309/8995; US 106851/1552; TX 1988/29
1-Day Distancing: WW 601509/27192; PRC 81903/3297; NON 519605/23895; IT 87309/8995; US 103554/1554; TX 1971/27
Actual Numbers: ww 593291/27198; PRC 81897/3296; NON 511394/23902; IT 86498/9134; US 101657/1581; TX 1937/26
1=Day US Testing: POS 89,618 NEG 486,863 PEND 66,880 HOSPITAL 13,923 DEAD 1,471
Actual Numbers: POS 99,413 NEG 527,220 PEND 60,094 HOSPITAL 13,718 DEAD 1,530
The numbers are really close to estimates, except Italy had a few more deaths. Almost everything else was on par or a little lower than estimated.
2020-03-28 Saturday 20:00ish
1-Day Projection: WW 666020/30928; PRC 82012/3301; NON 584008/27627; IT 92840/10156; US 123266/2067; TX 2400/32
1-Day Distancing: WW 666020/30928; PRC 82012/3301; NON 584008/27627; IT 92840/10156; US 123859/2000; TX 2390/33
1-Day US Testing: POS 107,568 NEG 561,770 PEND 59,784 HOSPITAL 23,397 DEAD 2,585
I only include the numbers for PRC because it fits my chart. I am sure thei are bogus, since their funeral omes are cremating thousands of bodies per week. Dear China, I respect honesty, not obedience. I know, I am not 10,000 years old. I know, keeping people from panicking is important.
2020-04-01 7-day Projection
7-Day Projection: WW 1169645/61852; PRC 82134/3338; NON 1087512/58514; IT 157313/19560; US 477863/6398; TX 9131/162
7-Day Distancing: WW 1169645/61852; PRC 82134/3338; NON 1087512/58514; IT 157313/19560; US 232880/4603; TX 5875/72
7-Day US Testing: Positive: 134,035 Negative: 728,160 Pending: 100,028 Hospitalized: 68,262 Dead: 4,770 Overrun: 04-06 295-335k
For April 1, we are trending to have more confirmed (mostly from Italy), fewer dead (more than the testing stat dead though), fewer in the hospital, and a lot more tests run. We are clearing 110k tests per day.
The US testing chart looks like hospital overrun may be April 6 (32% of US hospital beds).
Texas projections move one more day further out on every estimate.
04-07 29k TEXAS ICU OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-06 36k TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-13 146k TEXAS ICU STG3
04-14 178k TEXAS VENT STG3 & Hosp STG1
04-17 400k may be the inflection point for Texas if 14% like China, but our death rate is lower than theirs or the world.
04-18 532k TEXAS HOSP STG3
04-21 1.2m Inflection point for R0 of 2.2 is 60% with detection rate of 39.08
The distancing formula overrun estimates are pulled way back closer to the others, because social distancing got worse again. It is only -20% right now.
04-11 2929 TEXAS ICU OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-12 1787 TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-20 2929 TEXAS ICU OVERRUN STAGE 3
04-21 1787 TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 2
04-21 26633 TEXAS HOSPITAL OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-25 400k may be the inflection point for Texas if 14% like China, but our death rate is lower than theirs or the world.
04-27 4550 TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 3
04-28 26633 TEXAS HOSPITAL OVERRUN STAGE 2
05-01 47441 TEXAS HOSPITAL OVERRUN STAGE 3
05-02 1.2m Inflection point for R0 of 2.2 is 60% with detection rate of 39.08
Here are the milestones from 04-23 data for comparison to track our progress flattening the curve:
04-06 33k TEXAS ICU OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-07 45k TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-10 150k TEXAS VENT/ICU STG2 & Hosp STG 1
04-13 366k TEXAS VENT/ICU STG3 & Hosp STG 2
04-15 660k TEXAS Hosp STG 3
Milestones are based on guesstimates.
TX 28.7m pop; 2.9 beds per 1000 in TX (83230); 32% unoccupied (26633) / 11% are ICU (2929); 6.7% ventilators (1787); 10% limited function ventilation (2663) / 5-15% conf need hosp(532k-177k @ overrun); 2-10% ICU (29k-146k); 1-5% need vent (36k-178k)
Testing has ramped up substantially, every 2 days another 20k per day. We are at 110k per day as of 2020-03-28 16:00 EDT.
Our mortality rate is still about a third of the rest of the world, with TX going down, and the US going up just a little today.
Inflection point for outbreaks with an R0 of 2.2 is 60% of the population, not 60% of the confirmed cases. If we are catching a third of the cases, then uncontrolled, exponential climb would stop when confirmed cases were 20% of the population. If we are catching a 6th, then 10%.
Social distancing data lags by 3 days. Statistics lag by 1 day. Detection lags by 9-12 days. Impact delay of SD on Confirmations MAY BE 9 days, or it may be longer. The correlation is hard to suss out, but it may be that it will become more evident as we get more days of data.
Spreadsheet is updated, and downloadable here: