Projections for 03/17 and 03/22

I run an infection rate projection based on the last 7 days change rates using the JHU case data stats which are updated around 18:30 Central/US each day (vs 04:00 Central/US for the WHO data).

For Monday, 03-16, it was generally within ~1%:

World projection was 179621 confirmed and 7127 dead.
World actual was 181546 confirmed and 7126 dead.

China projection 81029 / 3213.
China actual was 81033 / 3217.

Non-China projection 99472 / did not project dead.
Non-China actual was 100513 / 3909

US Projection 4490 / 74.
US Actual was 4632 / 85.

TX Projection was 91 / 1.
TX Actual was 85 / 1.

For 03/17-18:30ish projections, I have:
Est: WW 196830/7885 ;
PRC 81063/3231;
NonPRC 116869/4721;
IT 31635/2574;
US 6132/115;
TX 100/1 though at low numbers, dead could be 1-6.
For 1 day, I’d expect to be within 2% on any of these numbers.

Note that the real-time trackers are not exactly aligned with this data, and the page I like so much is using a different data source for China, or has not refreshed from the formal stats. They do not match JHU nor WHO, but the other data matches. I’m thinking maybe they run a projection instead of real stats, and need to add newer datapoints.

Also note that Italy and China’s death rates are higher than the US, and higher than the world minus China. If it were just the US, then I would say maybe it’s affluence, or testing anomalies. Instead, I’m thinking that Italy had China’s first strain, and that perhaps the rest of the world has a secondary strain of the virus? I don’t really have the tools, skills, nor time to analyze the gene sequences to build a CV19 family tree to confirm this.

I don’t expect to see a change in the overall growth rates until sometime next week. Pandemic declaration was on the 11th, so Monday the 23rd will probably start to show a dip, plus or minus a day, depending on how much social distancing is actually happening, and when people started. Plenty are still ignoring, or selectively ignoring. I know I ordered food, and the family went to grab things from the university dormitory. Plenty of public facing workplaces still are interacting with unscreened, unlimited people.

For Sunday the 22nd, I’m expecting 262771/11285 worldwide; 81266/3324 China; 259371/14696 non-PRC; 78550/8986 Italy; 25567/280 US; 521/21 Texas. The US numbers could be higher if the two hot zones overrun their hospital capacity, or if a new hot zone pops up. 7 days is a long time, so let’s say it could be plus or minus 25%.

If you want to be safe, then remember that most incubation is under 14 days. People who have self-quarantined for 14 days can co-mingle with other people who have self-quarantined for 14 days and be at very low risk. The longest incubation on record was 27 days, so groups or mutual 27-day self-quarantine would be ultra-low risk. There’s never a zero risk, since there will invariably be one or two asymptomatic carriers. Also, anyone who lies, or anyone who breaks these rules will potentially be a vector for infection into that entire cluster of people. Self-quarantine means no contact outside of a closed group. I’m not sure the increased risk from food deliveries, well-spaced grocery store visits, etc. (Did the cook dip their glove in your food accidentally after scratching their face? Did the stock crew at the store have someone not safe? Did you disinfect the outside of the packages you got in the mail?).