US death rates

US death rate is low and falling. It is so far lower than everywhere else, I strongly suspect that the dead are not being tested for the virus, and only if they were already tested would they be considered a SARS-2 death.

In reality, the death rate we’re looking at is per infected person, and that is a false-low. Plenty of infected people have time yet to die. You have to plot it based on deaths per recovered person to get a true value. Since we are not done with the outbreak, and the US is still pretty early into the big numbers, that mortality rate is artificially high. China is 4.0 for mortality per all, and 4.37 for mortality per recovered. The US is 1.28% and 62.4% respectively.

It is more likely that the US infection rate is so high that not enough people have had time to die. I think in the next week, we’ll begin to see larger numbers of US CV19 patients dying. Also note that the US infection rates have dramatically risen the last 2 days. This may reflect an improvement in testing ability and reporting.

The alternative is that we’re accelerating due to people disbelieving the quarantine. I still see that locally in the Flower Mound area. Mid-week, people were still gathering for group meals, and group outdoor exercise. 6 foot spacing is not sufficient when you’re downwind from someone, such as when you are moving 10-15mph in a straight line.

Where            Cases   Deaths Recovered  Mort/A   Mort/R
World          272,167   11,299    87,403   4.15%   11.45%
China           81,250    3,253    71,266   4.00%    4.37%
Non-China      190,917    8,046    16,137   4.21%   33.27%
Italy           47,021    4,032     4,440   8.57%   47.59%
US              19,101      244       147   1.28%   62.40%
Texas              394        1        0    0.25%  100.00%
France          12,632      450       12    3.56%   97.40%
United Kingdom   4,014      178       67    4.43%   72.65%

Mortality rates all vs recovered are 3.56/97.4 for France, and 4.43/72.65 for UK. More in line with everyone else. Again, too early for the mortality per recovered person to make much sense.

Current 7-day average daily change rates for deaths in US, FR, and UK are 145.75%, 174.69%, and 160.33% respectively.

Daily Change   Avg 7 Days
World             113.75%
China             100.18%
Non-China         121.04%
Italy             116.38%
US                145.75%
Texas             133.33%
France            174.69%
United Kingdom    160.33%

Current 7-day average daily change rates for confirmed cases in US, FR and UK are 157.69%, 118.24%, and 125.30%. In other words, the US is spreading the infection at double the rate of the UK, and three times France.

Daily Change  Avg 7 Days
World            112.54%
China            100.09%
Non-China        119.46%
Italy            114.74%
US               157.69%
Texas            150.91%
France           118.24%
United Kingdom   125.30%

That is in line with predictions that our death rates look lower because we’re spreading faster, and people have not had time to die yet.


Laura McCracken

For those who knew Laura (WebWawa or Lawawawa or just Wawa), she passed today.

She had been struggling with adenocarcinoma for a while. Initial chemo, and then Tarceva maintenance gave her several more years. It re-metastasized and got into her brain. She’d had surgery and stereoscopic radiation treatment, which seemed to help at first. Then, they found two rapidly growing tumors near her vision center in her brain, and she elected to go through whole-brain radiation treatments. Ultimately, this, like any other massive radiation, was a big burden on her blood cell counts. That lead to infections and weakness, that ultimately led to her passing.

Laura was very sweet and had a great smile. For a while, she had bring pink hair, which was fun. She was always happy, and creative. She was blessed to have a very supporting family and a loving husband. Their loss will be great.

It pretty much sucks all the way around, but she was wonderful and made lots of people feel happy. We were all lucky to know her.

You will be missed. :(

Ref: https://www.facebook.com/webwawa/posts/10151957588592251
38 minutes ago

Dear Friends,

This is Laura’s sister, Leslie. It is difficult for me to write this and I am sure it will be difficult for you to read, but I need to let you know that Laura passed away around 3:30 this afternoon.

The doctors in Dallas determined that Laura had necrotizing fasciitis and her body was not able to defend itself against such a voracious disease. My mom and I both made it to Dallas in time to be there with Trey and her wonderful oncologist, Dr. Nadler, when she passed away. She left this world with the same grace and peace she exuded each day that she lived in it. The loss of Laura leaves a void in our lives that I can only hope we will be able to fill somehow with all of our wonderful memories of her.

We will not be having a traditional service for Laura because Laura was not a traditional girl. Our thought right now is to do something simple at the Bonnie J. Addario Lung Cancer Foundation walk on Saturday, May 3 in Dallas. She was really looking forward to walking this event with her team of Wawa’s Warriors. We will now be walking in her memory. I will post info as I know it.

If you would like to register to join her team to walk or make a contribution to the walk in Laura’s memory, below is the link to her personal page. I hope it works. I don’t know how to work Laura’s samsung phone very well.

http://ynsitc.kintera.org/faf/donorReg/donorPledge.asp?ievent=1093667&lis=1&kntae1093667=AB4A795E103F4F629267F43107DAAFB6&supId=351272737

Thank you all for your love and support. Each and every one of us is a Wawa Warrior in some way.

Love,
Leslie on behalf of my mom, my dad, and Trey


Nuclear Dream

I was at a school in south Arlington. So many little details about the school snd people. It was probably the 1950s but not really. Something happened politically and a small atomic bomb went off to the east.

My mom and I knew it first because we already saw it happen and came back in time to stop it. Unortunately, we could not do anything about it.

My mom had time cloned herself and her clone was going to sacrifice herself. She was calling herself Penny. I was sad, because a already knew that both of them would die.

The school was directly in the wind path, and we could not get anyone to leave. After the blast, it was about sheltering in place.

The VIP room was having breakfast for people who arrived that day. Mom and I had breakfast yesterday, but the selection was better today. McCaffrey’s family was there, and a grandmother who was social, but would reach over and stir someone’s food with her finger, then splash the food, when they were not looking.

I was sad, because I was stuck here, in a second iteration of this horrid day.

I left to go help people, but it was too close. Everyone was doing the same things as last time. A gathering to talk about the conflict, then the boom in the distance.

I walked. I knew my mom was dead, and I figured I could teleport or jaunt home. I couldn’t. I was outside and saw the mushroom cloud on the near horizon, drifting slowly towards us. Maybe it was my upset, or the people around me, but I realized I could not teleport anymore because my mom was dead. Both of them.

I walked home. I had not veen tgere in a long time. I saw transit bussed all along, but they were too slow. Soo many stops. No one knew about the blast but a few people called out that it sort of looked like a mushroom cloud. It was.

I walked into a house that looked like my mom’s, but expanded, rearranged, and renovated very nicely. A nice, big, friendly dog was there. A lady wa on the phone and I mouthed “sorry” to her as I left. No problem. The dog followed me out the screen door.

I was sad, but would be okay.

So I woke up, and it sucked. I was going to call my mom and tell her about it.

Then I remembered she is really dead in real life as of 2005-12-26. It was like a nuclear bomb went off. I don’t think I’ll ever “get over” the death of my mom. I don’t think anyone ever really does. She is the anchor, until she’s not.

But you learn to move on. By now, most days are fine, but once in a while, I’ll indulge the sadness and the memories for a minute. This dream had all of the emotions.

Mom would have loved to see the kids growing up.


Worst dream ever

Worst dream ever. Khai got caught up in some sort of program and refused to cooperate because he was tired and cranky. Because of this, he was given the choice of life in prison or death. He was still just a kid but he was pissed and chose death.

I had to leave because it was bedtime. I kept trying to call to make him make sure that was really what he wanted, but we could not get through because it was a new utility area with lots of construction. I was hacking a digital power distribution panel to try to get the computer to make the connection for us. There were maybe 8 of up, plus several kids.

Max was beside himself with grief the the rest of us were in shock. It was the first time he hugged me in 2 years. He was 14.

When I got to talk with Khai in person in the morning, he was really scared and did not believe it. He didn’t even remember the situation or making the choice. This is where I woke up. My chest hurts and I don’t want to go back to sleep.

UPDATEHad 2-3 other bad dreams while falling asleep, but decided to reset sleep vs log them then.

#2 was that I was at Josh Ellis’s house, and he was sitting at the bar. He got quiet and pale, and wouldn’t respond. I walked over to check on him and he started to fall. I had to lay him on the ground and perform CPR. I called the police on my cellphone, gave the address on speaker phone, “need an ambulance. Cardiac arrest”. Someone else was in the back (maybe one of his kids?) and I told them to unlock the front door. “I’m going to have to break your ribs” to him, and “his ribs” to Margie, because CPR can do that, and he’s my size. In the dream, he was just about 50, which would also be roughly 2 years in the future. To my real, semi-awake self, that part was spooky, in that both dreams pointed to something in 2015.

I don’t remember dream #3, but it was only a few seconds… Also bad. There was a 4th, but I fell all the way asleep and didn’t really store any of the events of it. All of this was between 1:34 and a little after 2am.

So, this morning, both kids gave me big hugs. Max and I had good chats, and Khai told Erica how much he liked me. Makes me a little teary eyed, and I feel better.

UPDATE2Makes me wonder if I was waking up from some other cause, and the dreams just matched it. (ie, maybe I was having palpitations, or maybe my airway was obstructed.) Because, you know, the wake-up dreams when I have to pee always have something to do with trying to find a bathroom, and being lost, frustrated that I can’t get there…