CV19 March 30 numbers

CV19 Pandemic Update for 2020-03-30 (Monday Night).

Most of the numebrs continue to slow vs projections, with the third significant digit being 2-3 lower. This means we continue to slow, not just hang at a new, lower exponential rate. Hopefully, this trend continues until the hospitalization rates fall.

2020-03-30 (Monday) Projections
1-Day Projection: WW 785,602/37,588; PRC 82,245/3,309; NON 703,357/34,279; IT 103,200/11,592; US 163,395/3,004; TX 3,175/46; ME 303/3
1-Day Distancing: US 164,555/2,970; TX 3,269/44
Actual Numbers: WW 782,365/37,582; PRC 82,198/3,308; NON 700,167/34,274; IT 101,739/11,591; US 161,807/2,978; TX 3,147/45; ME 275/3

Reminder: PRC numbers are likely 1/6th of the actual due to creamatorium activity.

Distancing rates were updated through 03-27, and have gone back down to the -30s. While it is a cool statistic, I cannot find an easy numeric correlation on the downward swing. It does help mellow out the 7-day predictions on an upward trend. I will stop adding it for now.

+1 Day US Testing POS 157,461 NEG 783,890 PEND 74,222 HOSP 24,311 DEAD 2,932
Actual US Testing POS 160,530 NEG 784,324 PEND 65,382 HOSP 22,303 DEAD 2,939
So, slightly higher testing rates, and slightly lower hospitalization rates. Death rates are spot on. The lower hospitalization rate means fewer people dying in 2 weeks.

Projection for tonight:
2020-03-31 WW 850,672/41,675; PRC 82,274/3,312; NON 768,398/38,363; IT 105,957/12,464; US 185,835/3,595; TX 3,547/55; ME 299/5

You can really see how much we are slowing down by seeing how the projection keeps shrinking as we approach April 1.

2020-04-01 7-day Projection April 1
7-Day Projection: WW 1,169,645/61,852; PRC 82,134/3,338; NON 1,087,512/58,514; IT 157,313/19,560; US 477,863/6,398; TX 9,131/162
4-day Projection: WW 1,097,956/54,118; PRC 82,357/3,321; NON 1,015,599/50,796; IT 132,717/16,052; US 333,315/5,929; TX 7,263/90; ME 468/5
3-day Projection: WW 1,017,269/50,218; PRC 82,428/3,321; NON 934,841/46,897; IT 124,403/14,738; US 278,237/5,179; TX 5,427/83; ME 426/5
2-day Projection: WW 964,689/48,019; PRC 82,366/3,318; NON 882,322/44,702; IT 115,671/13,966; US 240,828/4,723; TX 4,543/69; ME 350/5

The distancing formula has been tracking more consistently over the longer term, but since we came back into the -30s, that fell a bit as well.
7-Day Distancing: US 232,880/4,603; TX 5,875/72
4-day Distancing: US 237,600/4,513; TX 5,003/68
3-day Distancing: US 231,486/4,464; TX 4,761/68
2-day Distancing: US 227,620/4,475; TX 4,583/55

Hospitalization rates are going down, while positive and total testing rates are going up. The overrun date keeps moving further out.
7-Day US Testing: POS 134,035 NEG 728,160 PEND 100,028 HOSP 68,262 DEAD 4,770 Overrun: 04-06 335k
4-Day US Testing: POS 150,376 NEG 785,328 PEND 83,576 HOSP 64,012 DEAD 5,886 Overrun: 04-06 342k
3-Day US Testing: POS 164,152 NEG 817,199 PEND 77,376 HOSP 44,840 DEAD 4,592 Overrun: 04-09 408k
2-Day US Testing: POS 197,908 NEG 966,946 PEND 80,606 HOSP 36,789 DEAD 4,604 Overrun: 04-11 349k

Our mortality rate keeps climbing. 144, 155, 167, 175, 184%. I hypothesize that this is because we are further into the disease. We were climbing so fast before that our infection confirmations were outpacing the death rate. If that is the case, we can expect to see it keep climbing into the 4% range.

TX started the climb 2 days later, 122, 133, 143%. Average is 6 days to onset and 14 days from onset to death for those who do not survive.

Some good research is going on that promises to improve mortality rates, but that will probably be more for the next batch of people. Even if it is solved now, logistics of getting it deployed are not instantaneous.

Inflection point for outbreaks with an R0 of 2.2 is 60% of the population becoming immune. Divide that by whatever you think our detection rate is. I think we get about 38%, so maybe 75m people in the US showing as confirmed.

Social distancing data lags by 3-5 days. Statistics lag by 1 day. Detection lags by 9-12 days. Impact delay of SD on Confirmations MAY BE 9 days, or it may be longer. The correlation is hard to suss out, but it may be that it will become more evident as we get more days of data.

Spreadsheet is updated, and downloadable here:

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