Infection rate and death rates for US and TX match predictions, so that is disappointing. I was hoping they would be lower.
1-day Projection: WW 461807/21005; PRC 81686/3288; NON 381238/17782; IT 74856/7654; US 66137/903; TX 1203/16
Actual Numbers: WW 467594/21181; PRC 81661/3285; NON 385933/17896; IT 74386/7503; US 65778/942; TX 1229/15
I found a data source that tracks social distancing in the US via mobile phones. I have included a preliminary result for that (US and TX ONLY!) for tomorrow. I do not know if this will be valid.
1-day Projection: WW 524523/24175; PRC 81731/3289; NON 442792/20886; IT 79988/8254; US 80513/1257; TX 1582/19
1-Day Distancing: WW 524523/24175; PRC 81731/3289; NON 442792/20886; IT 79988/8254; US 82170/1244; TX 1632/20
I also changed the WW projections to be NON + PRC, since rounding was really messing up the 7-day projections (WW was less than non-PRC). This new 7-day projection will be a real test of the new distancing formula for US and TX.
2020-04-01 7-day Comparison
7-Day Projection: WW 1169645/61852; PRC 82134/3338; NON 1087512/58514; IT 157313/19560; US 477863/6398; TX 9131/162
7-Day Distancing: WW 1169645/61852; PRC 82134/3338; NON 1087512/58514; IT 157313/19560; US 232880/4603; TX 5875/72
The new numbers push Texas overrun one day later than predicted yesterday.
04-06 29k TEXAS ICU OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-07 36k TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-11 146k TEXAS ICU STG3
04-12 178k TEXAS VENT STG3 & Hosp STG1
04-15 400k may be the inflection point for Texas
04-16 532k TEXAS HOSP STG3
The new distancing formula is a different story. Overrun is much further out. Also, the spread makes recovery rate important, so I subtract 10 days prior from current confirmed, and subtract the current dead as well. Again, too new to be reliable, and I did not do a regression test.
04-12 2929 TEXAS ICU OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-14 1787 TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-26 2929 TEXAS ICU OVERRUN STAGE 3
04-28 26633 TEXAS HOSPITAL OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-28 1787 TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 2
05-04 400k Inflection point for R0 of 2.2 is 60%
05-09 4550 TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 3
05-11 26633 TEXAS HOSPITAL OVERRUN STAGE 2
05-17 47441 TEXAS HOSPITAL OVERRUN STAGE 3
Here are the milestones from 04-23 data for comparison to track our progress flattening the curve:
04-06 33k TEXAS ICU OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-07 45k TEXAS VENT OVERRUN STAGE 1
04-10 150k TEXAS VENT/ICU STG2 & Hosp STG 1
04-13 366k TEXAS VENT/ICU STG3 & Hosp STG 2
04-15 660k TEXAS Hosp STG 3
NOTE that the very first milestone was 04-02 based on 570 ICU beds, and was abandoned as a predictor.
Milestones are based on guesstimates, because the exact number of ICU beds and placement of ventillators is proprietary data that is hard to find and confirm. My estimates are based on: TX 28.7m pop; 2.9 beds per 1000 in TX (83230); 32% unoccupied (26633) / 11% are ICU (2929); 6.7% ventilators (1787); 10% limited function ventilation (2663) / 5-15% conf need hosp(532k-177k @ overrun); 2-10% ICU (29k-146k); 1-5% need vent (36k-178k)
Testing infrastructure may fail before the inflection point, leading to a false decrease in numbers reported. If that happens, we may not numerically reach the inflection point, which is 60% of the population for R0 of 2.2. Remember, we only confirm 12-15% of the actual cases, as many are mild or even asymptomatic, but are still infectious to others.
Inflection point for R0 of 2.2 is 60% of the population, times the percentage of infected people who get confirmed. Current reporting rate is 12-15%. Assuming we keep testing by same criteria, the TX inflection point is 400k confirmed. We may not reach this numerically due to testing/infrastructure failure. eg, we may reach stage 3 while our confirmed rate is much lower, but still around the same days.
Unknown accuracy at this point, because testing inputs are changing.
Social distancing data lags by 3 days. Statistics lag by 1 day. Detection lags by 9-12 days.