CV19 March 20 Update

US +6000 each of 2 days. It is throwing off the projections. Is this the new rate, or catching up on deferred testing/reporting?

03-20 Proj: 274102/11148 WW; 81210/3257 PRC; 195048/7975 NON; 47150/3893 IT; 24034/339 US; 391/8 TX

03-20 Real: 272166/11299 WW; 81250/3253 PRC; 190916/8046 NON; 47021/4032 IT; 19100/244 US; 394/5 TX;

I expect the US death count to jump soon, but that’s only because I do not know why the death rate is so low in the US. (Nationalistic zeal,. eg we are better than them because…, is probably not the cause.)

Projection for today’s report:
03-21 Proj: WW 305,199/12,939; PRC 8,344/3,257; NON 225,617/9,782; IT 53,880/4,774; US 26,673/298; TX 597/5.

The 7 day projection is coming up on 03-22, and WW we have already exceeded that. The guess was +/- 25%.

03-22 OLD: 262771/11285 WW; 81266/3324 PRC; 259371/14696 NON; 78550/8986 IT; 25567/280 US; 521/21 TX.

03-22 NEW: 329353/14176 WW; 81380/3270 PRC; 264408/12015 NON; 63076/5862 IT; 36287/368 US; 843/8 TX.

The new US numbers are questionable as stated above.

Chart of SARS2 stats

Chart of SARS2 stats updted for JHU’s March 20 numbers.


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