Projections for 03/17 and 03/22

I run an infection rate projection based on the last 7 days change rates using the JHU case data stats which are updated around 18:30 Central/US each day (vs 04:00 Central/US for the WHO data).

For Monday, 03-16, it was generally within ~1%:

World projection was 179621 confirmed and 7127 dead.
World actual was 181546 confirmed and 7126 dead.

China projection 81029 / 3213.
China actual was 81033 / 3217.

Non-China projection 99472 / did not project dead.
Non-China actual was 100513 / 3909

US Projection 4490 / 74.
US Actual was 4632 / 85.

TX Projection was 91 / 1.
TX Actual was 85 / 1.

For 03/17-18:30ish projections, I have:
Est: WW 196830/7885 ;
PRC 81063/3231;
NonPRC 116869/4721;
IT 31635/2574;
US 6132/115;
TX 100/1 though at low numbers, dead could be 1-6.
For 1 day, I’d expect to be within 2% on any of these numbers.

Note that the real-time trackers are not exactly aligned with this data, and the covid19info.info page I like so much is using a different data source for China, or has not refreshed from the formal stats. They do not match JHU nor WHO, but the other data matches. I’m thinking maybe they run a projection instead of real stats, and need to add newer datapoints.

Also note that Italy and China’s death rates are higher than the US, and higher than the world minus China. If it were just the US, then I would say maybe it’s affluence, or testing anomalies. Instead, I’m thinking that Italy had China’s first strain, and that perhaps the rest of the world has a secondary strain of the virus? I don’t really have the tools, skills, nor time to analyze the gene sequences to build a CV19 family tree to confirm this.

I don’t expect to see a change in the overall growth rates until sometime next week. Pandemic declaration was on the 11th, so Monday the 23rd will probably start to show a dip, plus or minus a day, depending on how much social distancing is actually happening, and when people started. Plenty are still ignoring, or selectively ignoring. I know I ordered food, and the family went to grab things from the university dormitory. Plenty of public facing workplaces still are interacting with unscreened, unlimited people.

For Sunday the 22nd, I’m expecting 262771/11285 worldwide; 81266/3324 China; 259371/14696 non-PRC; 78550/8986 Italy; 25567/280 US; 521/21 Texas. The US numbers could be higher if the two hot zones overrun their hospital capacity, or if a new hot zone pops up. 7 days is a long time, so let’s say it could be plus or minus 25%.

If you want to be safe, then remember that most incubation is under 14 days. People who have self-quarantined for 14 days can co-mingle with other people who have self-quarantined for 14 days and be at very low risk. The longest incubation on record was 27 days, so groups or mutual 27-day self-quarantine would be ultra-low risk. There’s never a zero risk, since there will invariably be one or two asymptomatic carriers. Also, anyone who lies, or anyone who breaks these rules will potentially be a vector for infection into that entire cluster of people. Self-quarantine means no contact outside of a closed group. I’m not sure the increased risk from food deliveries, well-spaced grocery store visits, etc. (Did the cook dip their glove in your food accidentally after scratching their face? Did the stock crew at the store have someone not safe? Did you disinfect the outside of the packages you got in the mail?).


Dream: Time Travel to Isol

Had a dream where I was time travelling in my dream, and I got to hand our with my grandmother who IRL died when I was 8. Giant hugs were had. I got to see her as a fearless young woman, and she was testing out some roof slats on a shed before putting on the metal. I explained to her the other times I would dream visit as a kid and such, then showed her a bunch of modern technology. Dream grandmother was modelled after an acquaintance of mine who reminds me of her, and is pretty amazing. Dream prompt was probably connected because my IRL diet drug cancellation was due to slight cancer risk, and my maternal grandmother died of cancer (metastic colon cancer in the brain).

Dream: Time Travel to Isol

Had a dream where I was time travelling in my dream, and I got to hand our with my grandmother who IRL died when I was 8. Giant hugs were had. I got to see her as a fearless young woman, and she was testing out some roof slats on a shed before putting on the metal. I explained to her the other times I would dream visit as a kid and such, then showed her a bunch of modern technology. Dream grandmother was modelled after an acquaintance of mine who reminds me of her, and is pretty amazing. Dream prompt was probably connected because my IRL diet drug cancellation was due to slight cancer risk, and my maternal grandmother died of cancer (metastic colon cancer in the brain).

Biology Rambles with Khai

biology = whole organisms
microbiology = whole tiny organisms
cellular biology = whole cells of complex organisms
molecular biology = The machinery inside of cells
biochemistry = The chemicals of organisms, both inside and outside of cells
organic chemistry = chemistry involving carbon and hydrogen.

There’s more chemistry, and underlying chemistry is physics. Biology is an application of chemistry, and chemistry is an application of physics.

When you look at molecular biology, you see what looks like program counters and 3d printers. Most of the bits inside of cells are literally physical machines, aided along by the right shape to have a static or magnetic charge necessary to pull the right pieces out of the semi-random soup and move, attach, or detach them.

When you exercise, you literally dump calcium into pockets in a muscle cell, and those fit into a lock on a little machine that ratchets down a little rope, each click caused by an ATP molecule floating in, connecting, getting snapped, and having a tiny bit of electric charge transferred.

The fun thing is that ATP is also required to pump the calcium out of that little pocket, so when you’ve depleted ATP. There is a complex loop for making ATP, and a whole of of ways to keep that cycle (ctric acid or Krebs cycle) going, but the fastest way to make ATP is oxygen and glucose.

Oxygen input often lags behind, and you can always burn up oxygen faster than you can replenish it. When this happens, muscle cells get stuck contracted, and they keep trying to contract, competing for ATP in this depleted state. This is one of the ways a muscle cramp occurs.

This rambling brought to you by brain inputs triggered by talking to Khai about his AP biology test today, and how excited he is about all of the machinery inside of cells.


WHAT DO YOU GET WHEN YOU MULTIPLE SIX BY NINE

Today, at 8:22am, I turned 42 years old. I set up a mini-monitor and airflow for the new server location. I’m really happy with all that. Planted some squash. Watched about half of “Kill Switch”, a FPS style sci-fi movie. I made some lemon battery videos. I had lunch with my sister. I had cupcakes and coffee with Erica and Khai. I sync’d up with my team lead over the phone. All of that in a different order. Lastly, I’m about to go watch Max’s marching band performance, to see their progression. This has been a nice, chill day so far.


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Three Dinosaur Giraffe Butts, and a shovel

Phrase for 2017-2018 school year is “Three Dinosaur Giraffe Butts”.

The mantra is “Shovel” from grovel from gravel from gratitude.

The shovel head is the size of a spoon, and the handle is 35 feet long, and at a sharp angle. It is designed to move a piece of gravel weighing 18 tons, and about 2cm in diameter.

This is the result of lunch with Khai and Erica.


What is a friend?

One of my buddies just got riffed from his company. I know he’ll be fine. He’s one of those kind of people that just make things work. He’s good with people, and knows how all the parts fit together within a big company. More importantly, he’s good people. You can tell he’s got a big heart.

It got me to thinking about the layers and components of friendship. I might have passed 100k people, met 10k, have 1k as friendly acquaintances. How many people are your active friends, vs inactive friends? What level of friendship and trust do you have with them? Some people just shine, or we feel an attachment towards. Where do celebrities fit in here?

Then you get into the obligation factors. Some, you know want or need help all the time. There’s a distance there, because it’s a hassle. Others, you would help out any time because you know it’s just simple, convenient stuff, or the scales will always balance out. Others, you know would never ask for anything, so if they actually needed something, it would be major, and you’d step right up and help.

Then the time factor. This varies by people, both sides, but sometimes, you want to spend time with people, and sometimes you don’t. Sometimes, it’s to *do* something, and sometimes, it’s to do nothing. Maybe a movie, or video games, or sports, or drinks and cards. Or maybe it’s just being in proximity of someone who’s easy to hang around. One person reads, another person works, another person naps.

And then, Family comes into play. Blood relation is one type of family, but then there’s “non-people”, or chosen family, as well.

Anyway, I’m not going anywhere with this. Just, caffeine, plus recent events got me thinking. By will alone I set my mind in motion.


Orbital Mechanics and Friends

I had a dream that I was on a space station, and our old van was a shuttle. An escape pod failed as we were leaving the station, and my dream went into orbital mechanics ala Kerbal Space Program. On waking, I pondered orbital mechanics, and realized it’s just like people.
Community is like orbital space. Each person is a satellite. Your interests, drives, life and death all define your orbit. Your location is the barycenter of your orbit, the focus of your ellipse.
Along your path, you will pass near other satellites, people. If your orbits are not close, it may be a single encounter. Maybe your orbit lines up repeatedly. Maybe not. Communication tech is better mowadays, and you can talk to someone orbiting Jupiter with a little lag.
But, you only have so much fuel (drive) to change your orbit. And if you aim for someone not on on a very similar path, you almost certainly guarantee that your paths will diverge more widely.
Unless you grab on and become one peice in a new, combined orbit, a risky maneuver. Instead, it’s less disruptive to adjust your orbit on each pass. Move your center when you can, and look for other satellites near you.  
Which satellites seem familiar. Is there a shared mission or purpose. Can you benefit? Are they from a friendly nation, or do you need to be on guard? If they are new and suddenly there, are they a risk for knocking you out of your planned orbit, or dragging you down the gravity well? If you join up, they be too big of a mass or too tightly coupled for you to change your orbit later? Or are they a whole new anchor in space to orbit freely, yet still taking you for a ride?
The best are when you orbit the others who orbit you, or you share closely overlapping orbits. If inclination matches, you meet more often than every orbit.
I have lots of acquaintances in unmatched orbits. *waves*
I have several friends in harmonic matched orbits. Hi Hi Hi Hi Good to see you again.
I have a few people that I try to keep my orbit matched with. I definitely have my own mass and velocity that makes this difficult sometimes, but I appreciate those on similar missions burning their limited fuel to help us stay in sync.