US death rate is low and falling. It is so far lower than everywhere else, I strongly suspect that the dead are not being tested for the virus, and only if they were already tested would they be considered a SARS-2 death.
In reality, the death rate we’re looking at is per infected person, and that is a false-low. Plenty of infected people have time yet to die. You have to plot it based on deaths per recovered person to get a true value. Since we are not done with the outbreak, and the US is still pretty early into the big numbers, that mortality rate is artificially high. China is 4.0 for mortality per all, and 4.37 for mortality per recovered. The US is 1.28% and 62.4% respectively.
It is more likely that the US infection rate is so high that not enough people have had time to die. I think in the next week, we’ll begin to see larger numbers of US CV19 patients dying. Also note that the US infection rates have dramatically risen the last 2 days. This may reflect an improvement in testing ability and reporting.
The alternative is that we’re accelerating due to people disbelieving the quarantine. I still see that locally in the Flower Mound area. Mid-week, people were still gathering for group meals, and group outdoor exercise. 6 foot spacing is not sufficient when you’re downwind from someone, such as when you are moving 10-15mph in a straight line.
Where Cases Deaths Recovered Mort/A Mort/R World 272,167 11,299 87,403 4.15% 11.45% China 81,250 3,253 71,266 4.00% 4.37% Non-China 190,917 8,046 16,137 4.21% 33.27% Italy 47,021 4,032 4,440 8.57% 47.59% US 19,101 244 147 1.28% 62.40% Texas 394 1 0 0.25% 100.00% France 12,632 450 12 3.56% 97.40% United Kingdom 4,014 178 67 4.43% 72.65%
Mortality rates all vs recovered are 3.56/97.4 for France, and 4.43/72.65 for UK. More in line with everyone else. Again, too early for the mortality per recovered person to make much sense.
Current 7-day average daily change rates for deaths in US, FR, and UK are 145.75%, 174.69%, and 160.33% respectively.
Daily Change Avg 7 Days World 113.75% China 100.18% Non-China 121.04% Italy 116.38% US 145.75% Texas 133.33% France 174.69% United Kingdom 160.33%
Current 7-day average daily change rates for confirmed cases in US, FR and UK are 157.69%, 118.24%, and 125.30%. In other words, the US is spreading the infection at double the rate of the UK, and three times France.
Daily Change Avg 7 Days World 112.54% China 100.09% Non-China 119.46% Italy 114.74% US 157.69% Texas 150.91% France 118.24% United Kingdom 125.30%
That is in line with predictions that our death rates look lower because we’re spreading faster, and people have not had time to die yet.