CV19 Pandemic Update for 2020-04-01
* Worldwide, 850,244 confirmed cases and 43,493 deaths, which is 22% lower than predicted 7 days ago.
* China probably has ~400k unconfirmed cases, and ~16,500 unconfirmed deaths.
* US is 213k infected, and 4757 dead, matching the social-distancing estimates, and 55% under un-adjusted 7-day predictions.
* US confirmed exponent continues to fall, but death exponent has not yet fallen. Maybe by Monday if NY & WA not too overloaded.
* US deaths per confirmed case continues to increase, and will do so until as far as 47 days after the last new infection.
* Many places in the US extended their stay-at-home plans to May 4.
Numbers for 03-31 1-day projection was within 1% as usual, but on the low side like the last 5 days. Except Italy.
1-Day Projection: NON-China 768,398/38,363; IT 105,957/12,464; US 185,835/3,595; TX 3,547/55; ME 299/5
Actual Numbers: NON-China 775,208/38,798; IT 105,792/12,428; US 188,172/3,873; TX 3,809/54; ME 303/5
Numbers for 04-01 7-day projection on the distancing formula was within 10%, which is impressive.
7-Day Distancing: US 232,880/4,603; TX 5,875/72
4-day Distancing: US 237,600/4,513; TX 5,003/68
3-day Distancing: US 231,486/4,464; TX 4,761/68
2-day Distancing: US 227,620/4,475; TX 4,583/55
Actual Numbers: US 213,372/4,757; TX 4,355/66
Numbers for 04-01 7-day projection on the averaging formula are 55% low for the US, 32% low for Italy, and about 22% low for non-China. When things are as expected, it comes up within 25% for a 7-day projection. This means the US and Italy are improving, and the rest of the world as a whole is still doing poorly at containing it.
7-Day Projection: WW 1,169,645/61,852; PRC 82,134/3,338; NON 1,087,512/58,514; IT 157,313/19,560; US 477,863/6,398; TX 9,131/162
4-day Projection: WW 1,097,956/54,118; PRC 82,357/3,321; NON 1,015,599/50,796; IT 132,717/16,052; US 333,315/5,929; TX 7,263/90; ME 468/5
3-day Projection: WW 1,017,269/50,218; PRC 82,428/3,321; NON 934,841/46,897; IT 124,403/14,738; US 278,237/5,179; TX 5,427/83; ME 426/5
2-day Projection: WW 964,689/48,019; PRC 82,366/3,318; NON 882,322/44,702; IT 115,671/13,966; US 240,828/4,723; TX 4,543/69; ME 350/5
Actual Numbers: WW 932,605/46,809; PRC 82,361/3,316; NON 850,244/43,493; IT 110,574/13,155; US 213,372/4,757; TX 4,355/66; ME 303/5*
* PRC numbers are likely 1/6th of the actual due to creamatorium activity.
* Maine did not update on 4/01.
Hospitalizations were 7-day projected at 68,262, but came in at 31,142. The hospitalization chart estimated 4770 deaths and we had 4700.
7-Day US Testing: POS 134,035 NEG 728,160 PEND 100,028 HOSP 68,262 DEAD 4,770 Overrun: 04-06 335k
4-Day US Testing: POS 150,376 NEG 785,328 PEND 83,576 HOSP 64,012 DEAD 5,886 Overrun: 04-06 342k
3-Day US Testing: POS 164,152 NEG 817,199 PEND 77,376 HOSP 44,840 DEAD 4,592 Overrun: 04-09 408k
2-Day US Testing: POS 197,908 NEG 966,946 PEND 80,606 HOSP 36,789 DEAD 4,604 Overrun: 04-11 349k
ACTUAL April 1 : POS 210,770 NEG 939,190 PEND 59,687 HOSP 31,142 DEAD 4,700 Overrun: 04-14 336k
1-day Estimate for April 2
non-China 932,543/48,756; Italy 115,572/13,925; USA 241,947/5,843; Texas 4,979/81; Maine 303/5
Adjusted USA 258,180/5,970; Texas 5,400/84
Tweaked USA 256,985/5,982; Texas 5,331/83
7-day Estimate for April 8
non-China 1,917,505/109,549; Italy 169,991/23,851; USA 745,176/25,239; Texas 15,874/306; Maine 656/26
Adjusted USA 679,037/18,955; Texas 15,401/282
Tweaked USA 707,819/21,874; Texas 14,357/317
Day to Day deaths are still climbing at 126%/day. They should start falling short by Monday. After lockdown, confirmed cases take 12 days to be affected, and deaths another 10 days after that. Anywhere that is overloaded will have a higher death rate, which may offset this prediction
As expected with the slow-down in spread, our mortality rate keeps climbing. 1.44%, 1.55%, 1.67%, 1.75%, 1.84%, 2.06%, 2.23%.
Inflection point for outbreaks with an R0 of 2.2 is 60% of the population becoming immune. Divide that by whatever you think our detection rate is. I think we get about 38%, so maybe 75m people in the US showing as confirmed. In other words, we are clamping down on the spread. It is not slowing due to going through the bulk of the population. If we all started mingling again tomorrow, we would see a big surge in cases 2 weeks later.
Average is 6 days to onset and 14 days from onset to death for those who do not survive. Social distancing data lags by 3-5 days. Statistics lag by 1 day. Detection lags by 9-12 days. Impact delay of social distancing on confirmations MAY BE 9 days. The correlation is a little fuzzy, but using 9 days got the estimates within 10% over 7 days.
Some good research is going on that promises to improve mortality rates, but that will probably be more for the next batch of people. Even if it is solved now, logistics of getting it deployed are not instantaneous.
Spreadsheet is updated, and downloadable here: